The virus, known as H1N1, has more than doubled from 13,398 cases to roughly 30,000 confirmed cases in the past two weeks. Pandemic status, phase 6, is the highest level of danger on the World Health Organization scale.
Swine Flu Virus Not Stoppable
In declaring the virus unstoppable, WHO had one small positive note: For most people affected, this flu strain has relatively minor symptoms and recovery is the same as for ordinary flu. Only a small percent of the cases are fatal; most of those involved patients with such other health problems as asthma, heart disease and diabetes.
Spread of this swine flu variety can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of transmission. An example would be that early cases could be tied to someone visiting Mexico, but now the contagious virus is easily spreading from one person to another. Dr. Chan said “further spread is considered inevitable.”
This is Only Start of the Pandemic
This entirely new influenza A virus emerged in April and, says Dr. Margaret Chan, the World Health Organization’s Director General, “the world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.” She noted that pandemics spread throughout the world. “This spread has typically taken about 6 to 9 months,” she advised, cautioning countries where cases seem to have peaked to prepare for a second wave of infection.
Dr. Chan noted that the profile of a flu virus can change quickly. “The virus writes the rules and this one, like all influenza viruses, can change the rules, without rhyme or reason, at any time,” she said. (Continued below)
Reported Cases Only Tip of Iceberg
Roughly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries. This is only the tip of the pandemic iceberg. Nearly all the reported cases are from countries with good surveillance and testing procedures. This indicates that the volume of cases in third world countries, and places lacking good, accessible health care, may be much larger than can be known at present. People in these locations are also more at risk because of underlying chronic health conditions.
Is There a Vaccine?
WHO experts are in touch with vaccine manufacturers and believe that production of vaccines for regular seasonal influenza will soon be completed, leaving them free to work at full capacity on producing the swine flu pandemic vaccine in the coming months..
Related stories answer questions about this pandemic flu, give the history of similar pandemic flu strains, and furnish resources for finding out more information about the H1N1 virus.
